What would have been an eventless by-election in a backwater constituency to fill the vacant seat of the late Suleiman Dori, now widely believed to have been the first people to die of COVID here in Kenya, is turning out to be ‘ground zero’ for almost everyone.
The consequential candidates are only two, but the would be winners and losers are numerous. The two horses in this race are ODM’s Omar Idd Boga and banana loving independent candidate Faisal Bader.
At regional level, Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya has renewed his rivalry with Mombasa Governor Ali Hassan Joho. In this by-election, Governor Mvurya — who has endorsed his Deputy Fatuma Achani to succeed him in 2022 — knows that a loss fundamentally recalibrates Kwale politics and seals his fate immediately and permanently as a dead dog.
But Achani is not the only one seeking to claim victory if Bader somehow pulls a surprise win. There’s also Lunga Lunga MP Khatib Mwashetani.
Joho is not just giving Mvurya sleepless nights. From his own Mombasa backyard, a group loosely coalescing around former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar and current Nyali MP Mohamed Ali are all deep in Msambweni to settle old scores.
Then there is Kilifi, where the mad ‘mutti’ Aisha Jumwa is doing all wizardry to break even.
A staunch DP Ruto matron, Aisha has opened so many war fronts its difficult to know which one she’ll eventually win. And she hates losing.
A by-election in her constituency — and which ODM won — resulted in one death. A sore loser, she pulled a gun from the waist of her boyfriend and shot the uncle of the candidate, as detailed in a murder case the state has brought against her, and her boyfriend.
In Kwale, where she’s been the most verbose in the vilest sense, she’s at least learnt not been near a gun, or near her boyfriend, or near both.
Suleiman Dori was an ODM elected MP but had — in his final days on earth — abandoned the party. Aware that he will not get the Orange Party’s ticket in 2022, he was working hard to build “Brand Dori”, then suddenly he died.
He had sacked his then relative and CDF Manager, Feisal Bader.
Mr Bader, however, is clinging to his work with Dori and promises a continuation.
Never mind that Dori had already fired him.
ODM in Kwale is the favorite to win the by-election.
Apart from the pitch by Governor Joho, which it itself unassailable, the party is being backed by the combined devices of President Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga’s ‘handshake’ machinery.
The party remains the most popular in the constituency, with a grassroots organization that makes it very mean to opponents. Kwale Senator, Kwale Women Representative, nearly all MPs in the county save for Mwashetani and another, are all backing the Orange party.
So is every other elected leader on the Party’s ticket from Lamu archipelago to Chale island have all descended in Msambweni. Last time I was there, Tana River Governor Dhadho Gaddae Godhana was there, drumming up support for Boga.
President Uhuru last week met Boga. On the same day, Raila Odinga rolled in the constituency for hours. They both know that a defeat of Boga is such a thrashing — from a far — by DP Ruto, whose shadow lurks large in the moneyed candidature of Bader.
This election is not just Boga vs Bader.
It is also about Joho vs Mvurya, Joho vs Omar/Ali, Joho vs Ruto, Aisha vs Everyone, ODM vs Tangatanga, Raila vs Ruto and…wait for it…Uhuru vs Ruto!
It is an election no one wants to lose. Not even myself. For sure.
